Poll: Labour Can Win in Bath !
Polling figures released this month suggest that Labour would have won in the Bath
constituency at the 2017 General Election if there was no tactical voting.
The telephone poll carried out by Survation (the polling company which most
accurately predicted the results of last year’s election) found that if voters ‘thought
that all the parties had an equal chance of winning’ they would have voted 36% for
Labour and 30% each for the Conservatives and the Lib Dems – giving Labour the
largest vote share.
In the ‘equal chance’ situation, 52% of people who voted for the Liberal Democrats in
2017 would transfer their vote to Labour.
The poll, which interviewed 555 adults across Bath during the autumn, also found
that only 32% of Lib Dem voters said that tactical voting was not a factor in deciding
how they voted.
Rachel Willis, Bath Labour Party Chair, said that “this is tremendously encouraging
news for the Labour party.
“It demonstrates that there is majority support for Labour throughout Bath and we
hope this provides evidence to the many people, who want to vote for our ideas and
policies, that there is a real chance that we can win.”
During the course of the interviews, Survation went on to ask Bath voters how they
would vote if Labour had the best chance of preventing the Conservatives from
In that scenario, 64% of Lib Dem voters said that they would switch their vote to
Labour. Councillor Joe Rayment, who stood as Labour’s candidate in Bath at the General
“We commissioned this polling because of our experiences talking to
people in the last few General Elections.
“Countless people told me that they wanted to vote Labour but would simply have to
vote Lib Dem to get rid of the Tories.
“My message to the Liberal Democrats is this: ‘the time when you could just coast in
Bath by saying that you’re not as bad as the Tories is over. This poll demonstrates
that people no longer need to vote tactically and have a real choice in Bath.”
The latest national polling gives Labour a 1 to 3-point lead over the Conservatives,
with Survation (December) giving them an 8-point lead.
Survation’s polling report can be found on their website